ผลกระทบของสัดส่วนหนี้ครัวเรือนต่อผลิตภัณฑ์มวลรวมภายในประเทศต่อการเติบโตของยอดขายรถยนต์ในประเทศ

Abstract

This quantitative research aimed to (1) examine the relationship between the household debt-to-GDP ratio (DEBTGDP) and domestic vehicle sales growth in Thailand (GSALE), and (2) analyze the impact of the household debt-to-GDP ratio on domestic vehicle sales growth in Thailand (GSALE), controlling for macroeconomic factors including the policy interest rate (POLICY), real GDP growth (GRGDP), and the consumer confidence index (CCI). The study used quarterly secondary time-series data from Q1/2012 to Q4/2023 (48 quarters), compiled from the Federation of Thai Industries, the Bank of Thailand, the National Economic and Social Development Council, and the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. Data were analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results showed that the GRGDP had a statistically significant positive effect on the GSALE across all models (p < 0.001), and the POLICY had a significant negative short-run effect (p = 0.023). Although the DEBTGDP was not statistically significant in the short run, the Bounds F-Test (F = 4.883, p = 0.013) confirmed a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables, while the CCI was not significant in any model. The findings indicate that sustainably addressing the high household debt level is a fundamental precondition for the long-run recovery of domestic vehicle sales, rather than relying on short-term debt-financed stimulus measures.